Iraqi Prime Minister’s Coalition Wins Parliamentary Election, but Path to Power Remains Uncertain

Iraq’s electoral commission has announced that a coalition led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani has won the country’s latest parliamentary elections, securing the largest share of votes in a poll that many hoped would bring renewed political stability. Yet despite the victory, it remains unclear whether al Sudani will be able to form the next government or retain his position as prime minister.

Al Sudani, who has governed Iraq since 2022, received 1.32 million votes, placing his coalition ahead of its rivals. Throughout the campaign he focused heavily on presenting himself as a steady and reliable leader capable of guiding Iraq through years of economic strain, political turmoil, and regional tension. His message targeted public frustration with government inefficiency and instability.

However, many younger Iraqis did not share the same optimism. A significant portion of the youth population viewed the election as another contest among established political elites who, in their view, remain focused on controlling resources from the country’s vast oil wealth rather than addressing the needs of ordinary citizens. Social media posts and comments at polling stations reflected a mixture of disillusionment and skepticism, even as turnout reached 56.11 percent.

In Baghdad, news of the preliminary results sparked celebrations among al Sudani’s supporters. Crowds gathered with flags and music, praising the prime minister’s leadership. One supporter, Hamid Hemid, described the outcome as a moment of pride. “He is the number one in Iraq and not only Baghdad,” he said, expressing confidence that al Sudani could guide the country forward.

Still, winning the vote does not guarantee that al Sudani will serve a second term. Iraq’s political system requires parties to form alliances large enough to command a majority in parliament, and no single bloc won enough seats to govern alone. Coalition building is often complex, lengthy, and shaped by personal rivalries, regional influences, and internal party divisions.

In previous elections, parties that won the most seats have sometimes failed to form a coalition, allowing rival alliances to install their own preferred candidates. Observers caution that a similar scenario could unfold again, depending on negotiations in the weeks ahead.

Political analysts say the next phase will determine whether Iraq moves toward greater stability or falls into another prolonged period of political bargaining. Much will depend on whether al Sudani can bring together enough partners, satisfy competing factions, and maintain support from influential political and religious groups that shape the country’s leadership landscape.

For now, Iraq’s voters await clarity, and the country’s political future remains unresolved despite the prime minister’s electoral success.