What the Leaked US Draft Peace Plan Reveals About Efforts to End the Ukraine War

Talks in Geneva aimed at reviewing a leaked US-backed draft proposal to end the war in Ukraine have concluded, with negotiators working through a list of twenty-eight points drawn up last month by American and Russian officials. Ukrainian representatives are believed to have pushed back strongly on some of the most sensitive parts of the plan, particularly those involving territorial concessions and limits on national defence.

Russia said on Monday that it had not received any updated version of the proposal following the discussions between US and Ukrainian officials. The original draft, disclosed last week, sparked immediate criticism in Kyiv because it suggested handing over parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control to de facto Russian authority. For many Ukrainians, such a concession is considered unacceptable.

The draft also called for Ukraine to reduce its armed forces to six hundred thousand personnel. While that number might be conceivable during peacetime, Ukrainian officials argue that imposing such a limit during an ongoing conflict undermines their sovereignty and ability to defend the country.

Some elements of the plan appear more agreeable. The document proposes confirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and establishing a comprehensive non aggression agreement involving Russia, Ukraine and European partners. It also calls for reliable security guarantees for Kyiv and proposes snap elections within one hundred days of a peace agreement. Elections are currently impossible under martial law, but could theoretically be held after a deal is signed.

However, the proposal does not specify who would provide the security guarantees or how strong they would be. Without something comparable to a Nato style collective defence commitment, Ukrainian leaders say vague assurances will not be enough.

The most controversial sections of the draft involve territorial changes. One proposal states that Ukraine would withdraw forces from parts of Donetsk it currently controls. Those areas include major population centres such as Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka. Around a quarter of a million people live in what Ukraine considers key strategic hubs, making the idea of withdrawal extremely difficult to accept.

Another proposal calls for recognising Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea as de facto Russian territory. The language avoids legal recognition, meaning it could theoretically allow Ukraine to maintain its constitutional position on its territorial integrity. Yet President Volodymyr Zelensky has argued repeatedly that allowing Russia to retain land seized by force would set a dangerous global precedent.

The draft also suggests freezing the current front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, while Russia would withdraw from occupied areas in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Mykolaiv regions. For Kyiv, the issue is not only military strategy but the wider principle of sovereignty. Ukrainian representatives at the UN have made clear that the country will not accept any arrangement that limits its right to self defence or reduces the capabilities of its armed forces.

As work on the plan continues, the leaked draft highlights the immense complexities involved in negotiating an end to the war. While some ideas may form the basis for further talks, others remain firmly at odds with Ukraine’s core demands and the expectations of its supporters.