Starmer Under Pressure as Manchester By Election Delivers Tight Three Way Contest

Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a significant political test as voters in Manchester head to the polls in a closely fought by election that could signal shifting support among Labour’s traditional base.

The contest in Gorton and Denton was triggered by the resignation of the sitting Labour MP, who stepped down despite the party’s strong victory in the 2024 general election. What was once considered a safe Labour seat has now become a three way battle between Labour, Reform UK and the Green Party, with polling suggesting the race is too close to call.

Starmer has framed the vote as a direct choice between Labour and Reform UK, the party led by Nigel Farage. Labour figures have repeatedly warned that support for the Greens could split the progressive vote and increase the chances of a Reform victory. The Prime Minister has argued that the election presents a clear contrast between Labour’s economic agenda and what he describes as divisive populism.

The by election comes at a sensitive moment for Starmer’s leadership. Recent policy reversals and the appointment of senior Labour figure Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington have drawn criticism from within and outside the party. Mandelson has denied wrongdoing over renewed scrutiny of his past associations, but the controversy has added to questions about Starmer’s judgment.

Adding further complexity in Manchester, some local figures expressed frustration after Labour selected councillor Angeliki Stogia as its candidate rather than Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who remains a popular figure in the region. Reform UK has selected academic Matt Goodwin, while the Greens are represented by local councillor Hannah Spencer.

The campaign has focused heavily on the cost of living crisis, public services and immigration. Reform UK has targeted disillusioned voters who feel overlooked by mainstream parties, while the Greens have aimed to attract progressive voters concerned about climate policy and international issues.

A loss for Labour in a constituency it comfortably held less than two years ago would be seen as a political setback, especially if the Greens were to secure victory. However, some Labour MPs have indicated that the broader local elections scheduled for May across England, as well as devolved elections in Wales and Scotland, will provide a more comprehensive measure of the government’s standing.

The outcome in Gorton and Denton is likely to be scrutinised not only for its immediate result but also for what it reveals about voter sentiment toward Labour’s direction under Starmer’s leadership.